id21 viewpoints

What we don't know about violent conflict

Patricia Justino, Director of MICROCON, argues that existing conflict research and policy's overwhelming focus on the national, regional and international levels neglects the micro-level issues and limits our understanding of conflict processes.

Conflict, fundamentally, originates from individuals' behaviour and their interactions with their surroundings (from its 'micro' foundations). Yet, most research and policy on violent conflict is driven by regional, national and international perspectives (having a 'macro' focus). This leaves many questions unanswered about individual and group interactions that underlie mass conflicts.

Around 25 million people are currently displaced as a result of violent conflict. Since 1990 more than three million people have died in conflicts, almost all of them in developing countries. While in recent times the world has experienced unprecedented democratic and economic growth, we have also witnessed rising political violence. This contradiction has stimulated new interest and research on violent conflicts.

Research that provides inter-country comparisons and implications for national and international policies aimed at mediating, resolving or preventing conflicts is useful, but the underlying 'top down' approach is not equipped to deal with fundamental individual and group dimensions of conflicts. Macro-level lenses analyse conflict or violence in terms of numbers of deaths, or riots versus civil wars. But, for the individual who experiences the violence, these categories might not at all be distinguishable from one another. Many conflict resolution, prevention and mediation programmes based on such research have therefore paid inadequate attention to individual and group interactions, and their links with social norms that encourage some groups to be violent, while discouraging others.

We know little about the people involved in violent conflicts:

• Who are they?
• What do they do?
• Why do they get affected by violence? In what way?
• Are they part of the conflict?
• What led them into it?

Knowing how conflict develops at the micro-level can provide answers to these questions, and help us to understand how conflict and poverty are related. It would also assist in designing future policies and structuring incentives to prevent conflicts, maintain peace and protect livelihoods. However, we do not have the adequate micro-level information and data.

For instance, a vital component of the Rwandan genocide lay in the ability of Hutus to monitor, sanction and control behaviour at the micro-level. Though the Hutu hierarchy was prevalent at the state and government level, it was with the people at the ground level that the actual mobilisation occurred. How were the Hutus able to mobilise people at the micro-level? We do not know because of the lack of micro-level data and analysis.

Similar examples can be seen in the writings on conflict in the Balkans. There is a need to understand the role of young men in violence here: what motivated them to join and become a part of militias, armies and gangs? What are the different roles played by young men and women in contexts of conflict and violence? We still lack knowledge in this area.

MICROCON or 'a Micro-Level Analysis of Violent Conflict' - a five year research programme funded by the European Commission - seeks to answer the questions raised above. This is a micro level, multidisciplinary study of the conflict cycle. The programme will gather new micro level data from around 40 countries, as well as use existing unexplored datasets. Through 28 different research projects, covering a wide range of different conflict-related themes, MICROCON will implement a fine-grained analysis that will allow researchers and policymakers to begin to answer the questions above.

Patricia Justino

What do you think?
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Further Information
Patricia Justino
Institute of Development Studies
University of Sussex
Brighton BN1 9RE
United Kingdom
Tel +44 (0)1273 873256
Fax +44 (0)1273 621202
Email p.justino@ids.ac.uk

See also
'On the Links between Violent Conflict and Household Poverty: How Much Do We Really Know?' MICROCON Research Working Paper 1, by Patricia Justino, 2007 (PDF)

'Reappraising the Greed and Grievance Explanations for Violent Internal Conflict', MICROCON Research Working Paper 2, by S Mansoob Murshed and Mohammad Z Tadjoeddin, 2007 (PDF)

MICROCON - A Micro Level Analysis of Violent Conflict

October 2007

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