Severe inequalities between culturally defined groups can make multi-ethnic countries more prone to civil conflict. These group-based inequalities may be more likely to lead to conflict if other conditions are present. The political conditions within countries, for example, may go a long way to explaining why civil conflict takes place.

Research from the University of Oxford, UK, examines the causes of conflict in 55 developing countries between 1986 and 2003. Specifically, the research asks: in countries where group-based inequalities may cause conflict, what impact do certain political institutions have? Two welfare indicators are used to measure socio-economic inequality: household assets and education levels.

Most research on the link between inequalities and political institutions tends to focus on inequalities between individuals. But studies on the causes of conflict have shown that group-based inequalities (social, political and economic) often result in political instability. Ethnic, religious or regional differences facilitate the building of well-defined, tightly-knit identity groups within a nation. When these groups are also disadvantaged socially, economically or politically, their collective grievances provide motivation for rebellion against the state or other groups.

A country’s political institutions are important in determining the behaviour of identity groups. The type of regime, the level of inclusiveness of the electoral system (majority versus proportional representation systems) and the exclusion of minority groups from political participation can all play a role in strengthening or weakening the effect of group-based inequalities on the potential for conflict.

Under suppressive regimes, for example, although disadvantaged groups may have significant group-based grievances, there will be little opportunity to mobilise. Conflict is most likely where people find it easy to organise as groups (such as under a democracy) and also experience deprivation. In the case of electoral systems, more inclusive, proportional systems may actually fuel differences between identity groups. Where inclusive systems also fail to correct grievances, they may make conflict more likely.

The author finds that:

• Countries with severe group-based inequalities have a higher risk of conflict. This holds true for groups defined along ethnic, religious and regional lines.
• This effect is influenced by regime type: group-based inequalities seem less likely to cause conflict in autocracies than in democracies and semi-democracies.
• Educational inequalities are more likely to cause conflict in countries with more inclusive electoral systems.
• Countries where severe inequalities and the political exclusion of minority groups combine are particularly at risk of conflict (for example, Burundi in the 1990s).

The causes of conflict are hard to identify, but to reduce the possibility of its occurrence, the author recommends that governments work on:

• correcting group-based inequalities
• creating a politically inclusive government with the participation of all major identity groups
• building a social system that distributes the benefits of progress fairly to all main identity groups by ethnicity, religion and region.

Source(s):
‘Horizontal Inequalities, Political Environment and Civil Conflict: Evidence from 55 Developing Countries’, CRISE Working Paper No.28, University of Oxford: Oxford, by Gudrun Østby, 2006 (PDF) Full document.

id21 Research Highlight: 15 March 2007

Further Information:
Gudrun Østby
Department of Political Science
University of Oslo
PO Box 1097 Blindern
N-0317 Oslo, Norway

Tel: +47 22 855181
Fax: +47 22 854411
Contact the contributor: gudrun.ostby@stv.uio.no

CRISE Network

Other related links:
'Reducing violence through cultural equality'

'Why development policy should be concerned with group inequalities'

Eldis Inequality Resource Guide

World Bank - Economic causes of civil conflict and their implications for policy (PDF)

ACCORD - Ethnicity and Ethnic Conflict Management in Nigeria

Conflict. Development and Peace Network (CODEP)

Other resources from CRISE Network, Oxford