Climate change is likely to affect agricultural production all over the world. This will affect strategies for poverty reduction. Although the impacts of climate change cannot be predicted exactly, poverty reduction strategies must consider all possible future scenarios.

Research from the Overseas Development Institute in the UK considers the possible impacts of climate change on agricultural production. About 40 percent of the world’s land area is currently used for agriculture, and this is highly dependent on the climate. Agriculture is also central for modelling the impacts of climate change on poverty, because many poor people depend on agriculture for their livelihood.

Climate change is likely to have different impacts around the world. For example, some models predict that 11 percent of the land in southern African will be unsuitable for growing crops by 2080. However, by the same date, the land suitable for growing cereals in North America could have increased by 40 percent. This means that policies concerning the global trade in food will be increasingly important for poverty reduction.

The research shows:

• Extreme climate events, such as floods and droughts, are likely to become more severe and frequent over the next 100 years in most areas.
• The land available for agriculture is likely to decrease in tropical regions, and increase in temperate regions. Most tropical developing countries will become more reliant on cereal imports from developed countries.
• Changes in crop yields are expected, but the biological and chemical relationships behind these are extremely complex. This makes it very difficult to predict future yields accurately.
• Most models predict that countries with diverse economies and strong agricultural sectors will fare best under different climate change scenarios.

There is a high degree of uncertainty in most predictions about the impact of climate change on agriculture. One problem is scale, meaning how to link global agricultural models to local crop models. It is also important to consider other possible factors, such as improvements in agricultural technology, changes to farming systems, and assumptions about population growth and the demand for food.

The many different models used to predict how climate change will affect agriculture each use different assumptions. However, most models predict that climate change will increase the number of people in the world at risk from hunger. Policy responses can either seek to reduce the rate of climate change or manage its consequences. Both these responses will be based on uncertain models, however. The researchers suggest:

• Policymakers may need to develop more flexible policies that can cope with increasing uncertainty about possible future scenarios.
• Development assistance over the next few decades should focus on economic diversification and strengthening the agricultural sector in developing countries. This means measures such as more investment in agricultural research and development.
• The co-ordination between climate change modellers, agricultural economists and agricultural policymakers must improve. Climate change issues should also be integrated into existing agricultural policies and programmes.

Source(s):
‘Climate Change, Agricultural Policy and Poverty Reduction: How Much Do we Know?’ Natural Resource Perspectives 109, London: Overseas Development Institute, by Rachel Slater, Leo Peskett, Eva Ludi and David Brown, 2007 (PDF) Full document.

Funded by: Swedish International Development Co-operation Agency; UK Department for International Development (contract CNTR 07 7803)

id21 Research Highlight: 13 November 2007

Further Information:
Rachel Slater
Overseas Development Institute
111 Westminster Bridge Road
London, SE1 7JD
UK

Tel: +44 207 9220300
Fax: +44 207 9220399
Contact the contributor: r.slater@odi.org.uk

Overseas Development Institute, UK

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