For many years, scientists have been predicting the impact of climate change. In Latin America and the Caribbean, predictions range from water shortages to an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. The effects of climate change could significantly reduce the ability of ecosystems to operate properly, threatening development projects throughout the region.

A report from the Working Group on Climate Change and Development in the UK describes the effects of climate change and environmental degradation in Latin America and the Caribbean. These include impacts on water, livelihoods, energy, the environment, health and migration. The report examines how to stop and reverse global warming, but also how to live with the amount of global warming that cannot be avoided.

The region’s climate is changing: in 2005, there were 26 tropical storms and 14 hurricanes. The intensity of these storms is likely to increase in the future. Rainfall and snow patterns are also changing, with increases in flooding and droughts and evidence of glacial melting. Sea levels are likely to rise, which will affect coastal areas: 60 of Latin America’s 77 largest cities are located on the coast. Furthermore, the destruction and poor management of natural resources increase the impacts of climate change. This abuse is rarley caused by poor communities, but they have most difficulty coping with the impact of change.

The research shows:

• The stress on water resources is likely to increase. Estimates suggest that by 2025, about 70 percent of the population of Latin America and Mexico will live in regions with low water supply.
• 30 to 40 percent of working people in Latin America are farmers. Studies show decreases in the yields of key crops including barley, maize, potatoes and soyabeans. These decreases are potentially linked to global warming.
• The region is likely to experience increasing health problems. Diseases such as malaria and cholera are likely to spread. Reduced access to food and water will also affect people’s health.
• The challenge of coping and adapting is greatly increased by existing and historical neglect of women in the region.

The report argues that humans need to design a new model for progress and development that will work despite changes to the climate. This model must give everyone a fair share of natural resources. The researchers recommend that:

• Rich countries need to exceed the targets for reducing greenhouse gases set by the Kyoto Protocol.
• Understanding of the problem of climate change is limited in developing countries. People need detailed maps that outline the complex impacts and risks from climate change.
• A community-based approach to reducing the risk of disasters should be included in all relief, reconstruction, development and poverty reduction plans.
• Governments must increase support for small-scale agriculture, based on diversifying farming systems to include a range of crops suited to different climatic conditions.

Source(s):
‘Up in Smoke? Latin America and the Caribbean. The Threat from Climate Change to the Environment and Human Development’, Third Report of the Working Group on Climate Change and Development, by Andrew Simms with Hannah Reid, 2006 (PDF) Full document.

Funded by: ActionAid; Bird Life International; CAFOD; Christian Aid; Columban Faith and Justice; Friends of the Earth; Greenpeace; International Institute for Environment and Development; MedAct; The New Economics Foundation; Operation Noah; Panos; People & Planet; Practical Action; Progressio; RSPB; Tearfund; teri Europe; WWF; Worldvision International

id21 Research Highlight: 7 December 2006

Further Information:
Andrew Simms
New Economics Foundation
3 Jonathan Street
London, SE11 5NH
UK

Tel: +44 (0) 20 7820 6300
Fax: +44 (0) 20 7820 6301
Contact the contributor: andrew.simms@neweconomics.org

New Economics Foundation, UK

Hannah Reid
International Institute for Environment and Development
3 Endsleigh Street
London, WC1H 0DD
UK

Tel: +44 (0) 20 7388 2117
Fax: +44 (0) 20 7388 2826
Contact the contributor: hannah.reid@iied.org

International Institute for Environment and Development, UK

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