Climate change poses a potentially major challenge to social and economic development in all countries. It is widely accepted that at least part of the earth’s 0.6°C warming during the last 100 years is due to emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, caused by human activities. During this century, the world is expected to continue warming, by between 1.4 and 5.8°C. Other predicted impacts are a rise in global sea level of between 0.09 and 0.88m by 2100, and changes in weather patterns, including an increased frequency and severity of extreme events such as hurricanes, floods and droughts. How can developing countries and development policies ensure progress in a changing climate?

Climate change means ‘global warming’ or the ‘greenhouse effect’. This is caused by the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere through human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels. In this issue we consider the challenge of climate change from a development perspective in terms of adaptation: how can developing countries anticipate and respond to the threats and opportunities brought by climate change?

During the last few years, scientific consensus and many people’s own perceptions have moved to an acceptance that climate change is ‘real’ and that we are now experiencing its early stages. In 2001, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which represents the international scientific consensus of governments and independent scientists, stated that “most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities”. Perceptions are also changing across the world. Examples of this are found in a recent book by Mark Lynas which draws on peoples’ experiences of changing climate, including Alaskan Eskimos, South Sea islanders, and Chinese sheep-herders.

Scientific and policy debates about climate change focus on the following questions:

• How fast and to what extent will climate change occur?
• What will the implications be for natural and societal systems?
• How much can we do to prevent it (and at what cost)?
• How can we adapt to the changes it brings?
• What are the limits to adaptation?

From a development perspective, we are interested in these questions, but others are also important. These include:

• How will climate change interact with other factors driving change in society, such as population growth?
• How will climate change interact with social and economic vulnerability?
• How can efforts to reduce vulnerability be coordinated with activities to adapt to climate change?

Major challenges also surround the equity issues of climate change, particularly between developed and developing countries, in terms of historically unequal emissions of GHGs, constraints on future emissions and unequal exposure and capacity to adapt to the effects of climate change. These are questions to which the developing world and the development community can bring considerable insights.

Mitigation and adaptation

Mitigation of climate change tackles the problem by reducing GHG emissions at source or ‘locking them up’ into ocean and terrestrial stores, through measures such as afforestation programmes. Adaptation relates to the ability of human and ecological systems to manage or cope with a changing climate. We are now committed to some climate change because industrial nations have already emitted vast amounts of GHGs into the atmosphere, and emissions by developing countries are also increasing. Furthermore, the economic development pathways of many countries remain fundamentally based on fossil fuels. This means societies are going to experience some degree of climate change and will have to implement a combination of reactive and anticipatory measures to adapt.

There is still much uncertainty about how the climate is likely to change, at both regional and national levels. In this issue of insights, Stainforth explains how climate models are used to predict future climate and where the key uncertainties lie. These include our understanding of the climate system and its response to GHGs, the ability of models to represent the climate system and at what rate GHG emissions will increase. Policy makers and planners often require information about climate change at scales which have high levels of uncertainty. Responses to extreme weather and anticipatory planning for climate change therefore need to build in flexibility and resilience to a much wider range of climate conditions than are currently experienced. They must also do this on the basis of limited knowledge.

For various reasons, more attention in climate change research and policy has been given to mitigation than adaptation. Tompkins and Adger explain the differences between mitigation and adaptation, noting that they share the same underlying factors and are not substitutes for each other, but are essentially complementary. From studying adaptation, the authors’ highlight that it is place-specific and context-specific, i.e. it may be difficult to generalise about how it occurs and how strategies can be used. Adaptation actions may be in response to or in anticipation of events, and implemented through the actions of individuals, governments or other groups.

International policies on climate change

There are growing international efforts to fund and facilitate adaptation in developing countries, as explained by Huq. These are primarily through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF). However, important questions still need to be resolved about the funding of the incremental costs of adaptation to climate change, how much responsibility developed countries will bear and whether and how assistance will be allocated among and between vulnerable groups.

It is unclear how or whether there will be coordination between funding and activities through international polices on climate change and normal development assistance. This question is considered by Agrawala in a discussion of mainstreaming climate change responses within development organisations. Some aid organisations have begun the process of considering how climate change may affect their activities and how they in turn could address the issue. However, much remains to be done. For example, results from an Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) review of donor programmes in six developing countries show that a significant amount of funding goes to sectors potentially exposed to climatic hazards but there are few examples where climate change is given clear consideration.

Vulnerable people and vulnerable places

Uncertainty about the details of climate change, such as whether rainfall will increase or decrease and the timescales over which climate change will occur, are likely to influence decision-making about funding priorities and target activities. There is, however, close agreement between development agendas and the effects of climate change in areas with high climate variability and extremes of weather. It is in these situations that climate change will most directly affect vulnerable people, such as those in small island states or low-lying coastal areas, subsistence farmers, flood prone communities and urban dwellers exposed to extreme temperatures and potential increases in disease transmission.

Development work can provide valuable insights into the context-specific and socially mediated links between vulnerability and extremes of weather. Cause and effect between hazard and disaster occurs through human agency and it is here that development research has much to offer our understanding of climate-society interactions. Devereux and Edwards consider these issues in relation to drought and food security. Whilst climate change globally may lead to increases in staple crop yields, there will be considerable local variations. Many tropical regions and developing countries are expected to experience lower yields, due to reduced water availability, smaller fertilisation effects from carbon dioxide and interactions with non-climate factors, such as reduced capacity to adapt to climate change.

The context-specific exposure to climate-related risk and activities currently in place to address adaptation are outlined in two short country examples, South Africa and Pacific Islands, by Vogel and Lefale and McFadzien. Together, the articles in this issue highlight some of the key cross-cutting themes in international development and climate change.

Source(s):
‘Summary for policymakers’, A report of working group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, 2001 Full document.
‘High Tide: News from a Warming World’, Flamingo Press, M. Lynas, 2004
‘Securing development in the face of climate change’ insights# 53 Full document.

id21 Research Highlight: 7 December 2004

Further Information:
Declan Conway
School of Development Studies
University of East Anglia
Norwich
UK

Tel: +44 1603 592337
Fax: +44 1603 451999
Contact the contributor: d.conway@uea.ac.uk

University of East Anglia, UK

Other related links:
Synergies and trade-offs in climate change responses

‘International policy in supporting adaptation’

‘Responding to drought and food insecurity’

‘Living with variable climate in southern Africa’

‘Responding to climate change’

‘Knowledge about our future climate’

‘Focus on the Pacific Islands’