Science cannot predict with certainty how future climate change will affect food security. Around 800 million people are currently undernourished, and this number will probably grow as our climate changes. How will the most vulnerable households and countries cope, when they are likely to be the most seriously affected and have the least resources to adapt?

Climate change is not necessarily all bad. The consensus of scientific opinion suggests that agricultural land may be gained in higher latitudes that are presently too cold for cultivation, if relatively small temperature increases are experienced. Overall, world food production may even increase because of global warming. However, this growth is likely to benefit large surplus producers in North America and northern Europe the most.

These potential benefits will also mask the severe problems poorer regions are likely to experience. Africa may be worst affected, with losses of arable land and declines in rainfall reducing the length of growing seasons. This will intensify food insecurity in a region where crop production per capita is already declining and population growth will double the demand for food within the next 30 years. It may also create further dependency on overseas food supplies.

Climate change is not only about global warming but also changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events. Changes may occur in the frequency and severity of El Niño Southern Oscillation events, such as prolonged droughts and heavier monsoons; these have been fairly closely correlated with weather-related famines in the Horn of Africa (Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia including Somaliland, Sudan) for at least the past 200 years. There is also uncertainty about interactions between gradual and abrupt changes. A combination of slow climatic changes and increasing frequency of sudden shocks could trigger much larger and more frequent harvest collapses than countries can cope with.

Projections from increasingly sophisticated climate models for the global number of undernourished people by 2060 vary widely, ranging from 641 million to as many as 2.1 billion. The uncertainty associated with predicting the impacts of climate change on food security are increased by:

• future technological, adaptive or political responses to global warming
• contrasting models for economic growth rates
• trends in urbanisation
• developments in global governance.

What can be done? Advances in technology - including, controversially, biotechnology - could transform agriculture. Alternatively, rural-urban migration or livelihood diversification within rural areas could reduce dependence on rain-fed agriculture, which is extremely sensitive to climate change.  Adaptation strategies can offset some of the consequences of climate change, and are already used by people living in marginal environments. Examples include crop and livelihood diversification. Many risk management measures could have an immediate positive effect on hunger, regardless of climate change.

A simulation model for Mali, where temperatures are projected to rise by 1 oC – 2.75 oC by 2030, anticipates cereal harvests falling by up to 19%. As a consequence, this will result in doubling the incidence of undernutrition from 34% to 64-70%. However, this simulation also demonstrated that, if appropriate policy and agricultural adaptations were implemented now, hunger could decline from 34% to 21% of the population. This would require strong governance and considerable finance, however.

Action is needed at all levels to strengthen coping systems and reduce exposure to risk. Disaster planning will be needed to cope with the aftermath of unpredictable extreme weather events, but slower changes to weather patterns offer more opportunities to introduce risk reduction and risk management strategies. The economic cost of adaptation is high and those most affected by climate change can least afford it - the poorest and most vulnerable countries urgently need technical and financial support.  But climate change could also affect international relationships.  We have seen how the events of September 11th 2001 changed political alliances in unforeseeable ways. Will climate change generate a fraction of the resources allocated to the ‘war on terror’? If not, the losers could find themselves abandoned by the wealthier winners.

Source(s):
‘Climate change and food security’, IDS Bulletin 35 (3), by S. Devereux and J. Edwards, 2004 Full document.
‘Food Security Implication of Climate Change in Developing Countries: Findings from a Case Study in Mali’, Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, by T. Butt, B. McCarl, J. Angerer, P. Dyke and J. Stuth, J, 2003
‘Securing development in the face of climate change’, December 2004, insights# 53 Full document.

id21 Research Highlight: 7 December 2004

Further Information:
Jenny Edwards
Institute of Development Studies
University of Sussex
Brighton
BN1 9RE
UK

Tel: (+44) 1273 678490
Contact the contributor: jennye@ids.ac.uk

Institute of Development Studies (IDS), UK

Other related links:
‘Synergies and trade-offs in climate change responses’

‘International policy in supporting adaptation’

‘Responding to climate change’

‘Living with variable climate in southern Africa’

‘Knowledge about our future climate’

‘Focus on the Pacific Islands’

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