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The countries in eastern and southern Africa where HIV/AIDS prevalence exceeds 20 percent face huge challenges to cope with the disease. Policymakers need to predict the likely impacts now if policies are to be effective in time to minimise social and economic problems. Research from Michigan State University, USA and the Food and Agriculture Organization, Italy, uses population change predictions and household surveys to consider the likely consequences of HIV/AIDS for the agricultural sector in Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe. This identifies four issues largely overlooked by previous research:
By 2025, there will be 38 million men and women aged between 20 and 59 years in eastern and southern Africa, compared to 63.5 million if HIV/AIDS had not existed. However, this predicted population of 38 million is similar to numbers today, because of the momentum of population growth. While HIV/AIDS is expected to slow down population growth to almost nothing, the net result is a stable number of working age adults. Informal employment in urban areas has grown massively in recent decades. Urbanisation does not reflect a strong demand for urban labour, but shows the ‘pushing out’ of workers from rural areas where population densities are high, farm sizes have declined, and there are few employment opportunities. Agricultural labour shortages caused by HIV/AIDS may cause a further change in labour migration out of the urban informal sector and back into agriculture. Underemployment in the informal sector is likely to protect the agricultural sector from labour shortages. Land-to-person ratios vary greatly within eastern and southern Africa. The smallest farms generally have less than 0.1 hectares of land per person, whilst households with the largest land-to-labour ratios have at least seven times more land per capita, usually 0.5 to 1.0 hectares per person. Because of this diversity, the limiting input to agricultural production will vary. Larger farms will need to hire labour. Smaller farms will be limited by a lack of land. HIV/AIDS may also cause a loss of savings, cattle, equipment and other assets rural communities which may further limit rural productivity. Major changes in agricultural policy have occurred in the past 15 years; many countries in eastern and southern Africa have ended state-led maize promotion policies and consequently, cropping incentives have shifted towards food crops, such as cassava. However, there is little evidence, either on a large scale or a small scale, to indicate that HIV/AIDS is causing switches to crops that require less labour, such as the recent shift from maize to roots and tubers observed in several countries. Policymakers must anticipate the changes HIV/AIDS will bring to the agricultural and rural sector, and respond through policies and programmes that consider these predicted changes. There is an urgent need to implement an appropriate set of public investments and programmes now, rather than respond after the disease has caused devastation. Agricultural policies must contribute effectively to poverty reduction and raise long-term living standards. Potential measures include:
The extent to which progress is made in these areas over the next 20 years is likely to greatly influence living standards in the hardest-hit countries. Source(s): id21 Research Highlight: 15 June 2005
Further Information: Tel:
+1 517 355 0131 Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University, USA Other related links:
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