Many people see rainfed agriculture as risky, but it has the potential to produce large amounts of cereal in dry regions. For this potential to be realised, farmers, researchers and policymakers must work together to improve technology and reconsider economic policies.

Research from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization looks at rainfed agriculture in Syria and Kazakhstan. Farmers in these countries often do not perceive rainfed agriculture to be profitable. Crop yields seem low considering the amounts of land, water, labour and capital required. However, new technology is available to help farmers predict uncertain variables such as rainfall. This improved predictability can help to increase the contribution of rainfed agriculture.

Syria has both rainfed and irrigated agriculture. Current policies do not support the sustainable use of natural resources, as water is used to grow low- value crops such as wheat. Kazakhstan has predominantly rainfed agriculture, particularly in the north. Economic policies do not provide incentives for farmers to produce commodities competitively, as they receive comparatively low prices for crops. With higher transportation costs and lower yields, farmers cannot compete in both domestic and export markets.  

In Syria, researchers worked with farmers to create recommendations for fertiliser applications at different levels of water availability. Improved land management practices, which supplemented rainfed agriculture with selective irrigation (supplemental irrigation), led to a steady increase in wheat yields. In Kazakhstan, however, smallholder farmers were unwilling to take risks regarding their cereal crops, although research showed that the probability of rainfall in certain areas is good, enabling farmers to produce more crops and raise their income.

The research shows:

• Although yields have improved in Syria, the change in cropping patterns has increased the use of groundwater for irrigation and water tables are now declining. A legal framework is needed to stop groundwater depletion and enforce and encourage collective action to conserve water.
• Syrian farmers receive 60 percent more than the international price for their wheat. This gives them a strong incentive to produce more by investing in fertiliser and supplementary irrigation.
• Kazakh farmers receive only 55 percent of the world price for their wheat, so they lack incentives to invest in fertilisers or improved crop varieties.
• Since the break-up of the Soviet Union, farmers in Kazakhstan find it difficult to compete in international markets. The marketing system is poorly developed and has weak external links, meaning that if grain surpluses increase, prices may fall. 
• Many farmers in Kazakhstan continue to operate under barter systems and are often forced to sell their products for low prices.

In terms of agricultural economic policies, farmers follow incentives which offer the highest short-term returns. The challenge for economic policymakers is to find a balance between improving the financial welfare of farmers and achieving sustainable food security.

The research recommends:

• In Syria, policymakers must give more attention to the sustainability of groundwater resources. Policies need to define groundwater rights clearly between different users.
• Policies should consider the resource costs (such as labour and fertiliser costs) of the major crops grown to let markets determine the output price and ensure farmers are earning a profit.
• In Kazakhstan, extension services need to support farmers by promoting new rainfall management practices more effectively.
• Removing taxation on farmers and securing access to markets will allow them to benefit more from international grain prices.

Source(s):
‘Food and water insecurity: re-assessing the value of rainfed agriculture,’ Water and Science Technology: Water Supply 5:1, by M. Ahmad, A. Rodríguez and A. Braslavaskaya, 2005 Full document.

id21 Research Highlight: 29 November 2005

Further Information:
Mahmood Ahmad
Regional Policy Officer
Food and Agriculture Organisation
Regional Office for the Near East
Cairo
Egypt

Contact the contributor: Mahmood.ahmed@fao.org

Food and Agriculture Organization

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