Cities vulnerable to sea level rise

Estimates for expected sea level rise up to the end of the 21st Century vary from 18 to 59 centimetres. Any such rise would certainly increase the number of people flooded by storm surges, especially in cities already vulnerable. These cities include:

Alexandria. The Government of Egypt assessed the vulnerability of the most important economic and historic centres along Egypt's Mediterranean coast (Alexandria, Rosetta and Port-Said). The findings suggest that for a sea level rise of 50 centimetres, over 2 million people would have to abandon their homes, 214,000 jobs would be lost and the cost in terms of land and property value and tourism income lost would be over US$35 billion. This would also involve the loss of world famous historic, cultural and archaeological sites.

Cotonou is Benin's largest urban centre, with around 700,000 inhabitants. Large sections of the city's economy and residential neighbourhoods are at risk from sea level rise and storm surges. Beaches, roads and buildings have already been destroyed by the coastline's regression in the last ten years. Provision for drainage is inadequate, the city has no sewer system and only a small proportion of solid waste is collected. Most of the population lives in informal settlements.

Mombasa, Kenya's second largest city, has over 700,000 inhabitants. It is a major seaport serving many countries. Around one fifth of Mombasa could be submerged by a sea-level rise of 30 centimetres, with a larger area rendered uninhabitable or unusable for agriculture because of water logging and salt stress. Beaches, historic and cultural monuments and several hotels, industries and port facilities would also be affected. Mombasa already has a history of disasters related to climate extremes, including floods, which cause serious damage and often loss of life nearly every year.

Sources:

'Vulnerability Assessment of the Coastal Zone of the Nile Delta of Egypt to the Impact of Sea Level Rise', Ocean and Coastal Management, 37 (1), pages 29-40, by M. El-Raey, (1997)

'The Vulnerability to Climate Change of Cotonou (Benin): The Rise in Sea Level', Environment and Urbanization, 19 (1), pages 65-79, by Krystel M R Doussou and Bernadette Glehouenou-Dossou, (2007)

Climate Change and Coastal Cities: the Case of Mombasa, Kenya, case study prepared for the Rockefeller Foundation, by Cynthia B. Awuor, Victor A. Orindi and Andrew Adwerah, (Forthcoming)

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