Responding to early warnings

Food aid in Niger arrived too late in 2005, despite widespread predictions that famine was imminent. The world has known for months that famine is also coming to southern Africa but policymakers are still not responding to the warnings.

On 20th October 2003, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned that desert locusts would cause damage in Niger and appealed for help. However, funds were not forthcoming until the plague was well under way and the FAO were still US$17 million short of their needs in May 2004. The locust invasion, the biggest in 15 years, combined with an early end to the rainy season, caused poor harvests - worse than the annual 'hungry season' - and led directly to the famine that began in January 2005.

Pest outbreaks

The FAO forecasts desert locust outbreaks, but there are few early warning systems for other pests. The UK Department for International Development has sponsored three early warning systems across the Southern African Development Community region:

• The Information Core for Southern African Migrant Pests is an internet-based system that provides information and early warnings of several pests.
• Forecasting models for red-billed quelea birds (cereal crop pests) use satellite-derived rainfall estimates to show where conditions have become suitable for the birds to breed.
• Community-based forecasting for African armyworm (a cereal crop pest) relies on villagers counting moths from pheromone traps, collecting local rainfall data and running the information through simple rules to provide localised forecasts of moth outbreaks.

In contrast to Niger, policymakers in southern Africa do act against migrant pests and heed warnings, saving large quantities of crops. Estimates from South Africa suggest that current quelea control programmes save at least 100 million Rands worth of wheat crops each season.

Why are warnings ignored?

The Niger famine was preventable but why do policymakers, donors and national governments seldom take serious notice of early warning systems? There are several possible answers:

• They have a 'seeing is believing' mentality and refuse to provide funds until they can see the problem. Political gains come by visibly helping in emergencies, but less so from prevention strategies where lives saved or economic gains are not immediately obvious.
• They have little or no scientific training and do not understand prevention strategies. There is a lack of scientists in key policymaking roles and, in the UK at least, in positions able to provide advice.

Few governments raised awareness of the Niger crisis until very late. There should be some requirement amongst governments to check the output of the systems that are already in place and for researchers to formally document and promote successful new systems. The new United Nations Central Emergency Response Fund promises to have funds available to facilitate fast delivery of coordinated donor aid to crisis areas. Time will tell as to what difference this makes.

Robert A. Cheke
Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich at Medway, Central Avenue, Chatham Maritime, Chatham, Kent ME4 4TB, UK
T +44 (0)1634 880088
F +44 (0)1634 883379
r.a.cheke@greenwich.ac.uk
www.nri.org

See also

FAO issues Desert Locust alert
www.fao.org/ag/locusts/common/ecg/241_en_24019_en.htm

The SADC Quelea breeding forecast for Southern Africa
www-web.gre.ac.uk/directory/NRI/quel

Information Core for Southern African Migrant Pests
http://icosamp.ecoport.org

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