Responding to climate change

The impacts of climate change are already being observed around the world, from retreating glaciers to changing seasons and rainfall patterns. Climate change is likely to be evident in the future through more frequent storms, droughts, heat waves, floods and other extreme events. Each of these may affect the security and sustainability of development throughout the world. Developing countries, particularly least developed countries, are likely to be exposed to the greatest impacts. However, climate change is caused by current and past emissions from industrialised countries that have more resources to cope with the impacts.

There are two responses to climate change: mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation means reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, the main cause of human-induced climate change. Without serious mitigation there will be no 'stabilisation' of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere, the climate will continue to change in unpredictable ways and impacts may increase exponentially. Any serious efforts to mitigate must address the global dependence on fossil fuels and the politics that surround this dependence. For developing countries, efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions will also have significant consequences for energy-intensive development and the affordability of energy for the poor.

Adaptation means adjusting to any new climatic conditions caused by natural and human-induced change. Many parts of the world have had to cope with previous climate variability and have developed strategies to do so. Adaptation can be undertaken in anticipation of impacts or after these have occurred. These can be initiated by individuals through market exchanges and social interactions, or through coordinated measures by government or other groups. The mix of anticipatory or reactive adaptation action actually introduced will depend on the existing vulnerabilities of each community or individual, as well as institutional processes, regulatory frameworks, property rights, access to resources and social conditions.

Adaptation is place-specific and context-specific: there is no single plan for how adaptation should occur. However, lessons learned from responding to past hazards may be useful for planning for future climate change. For example, government agencies and individuals in the Cayman Islands have learned from hurricane events over the past 20 years, including Hurricane Ivan in 2004.

A strategy to prepare for climate change should involve:

• compiling clear and concise information about climate change, including uncertainties
• integrating current and future climate information into physical planning processes to build robust infrastructure to mitigate future impacts
• focussing on the buffering capacity of managed natural systems, for example wetlands, the coastal zone and rain-fed agriculture, when investing in new projects.

The Cayman Islands show how government institutions can respond to environmental hazards. Societies benefit from operating as a 'learning system' and by recognising that experimentation and adaptive management allow procedures and response capacity to develop. Participation and ownership of responses by wide sections of society is essential.

Investments in adaptation and mitigation are necessary but these are not substitutes for each other. In fact, the ability of societies to reduce their emissions and to adapt are determined and constrained by the same underlying factors. The resilience of institutions and of resources sensitive to changes in the climate is central to meeting the challenge. These issues are often magnified in developing countries, which are coping with economic globalisation and other challenges simultaneously.

Emma L. Tompkins and W. Neil Adger
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ
UK
e.tompkins@uea.ac.uk
n.adger@uea.ac.uk

See also

www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/theme3/

'Planning for climate change in small islands: insights from national hurricane preparedness in the Cayman Islands', Global Environmental Change 15(2), E.L. Tompkins (forthcoming 2005, copies available from the author)

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