December 2004, insights, Issue #53

Securing development in the face of climate change

Climate change poses a potentially major challenge to social and economic development in all countries. It is widely accepted that at least part of the earth's 0.6°C warming during the last 100 years is due to emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, caused by human activities. During this century, the world is expected to continue warming, by between 1.4 and 5.8°C. Other predicted impacts are a rise in global sea levels of between 0.09 and 0.88 metres by 2100, and changes in weather patterns, including an increased frequency and severity of extreme events such as hurricanes, floods and droughts. How can developing countries and development policies ensure progress in a changing climate?
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Welcome to the Maldives Climate Conference
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Other articles in this issue:

Synergies and trade-offs in climate change responses

Beyond the climate change community and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), how much awareness of climate change is there amongst development organisations? What steps have they taken in response to climate change? The development community and sectoral planners in several governments are increasingly asking how the future impacts of climate change can be included within development activities.

International policy in supporting adaptation

The world is committed to a certain amount of human-induced climate change over the next few decades. Some negative impacts of climate change are inevitable. These impacts are likely to affect developing countries most severely. Developed countries and wealthier people in less developed countries may be able to cope with, or adapt to, these impacts. However, poor people across the world may require assistance to adapt to climate change and to offset its potentially unequal effects.

Responding to drought and food insecurity

Science cannot predict with certainty how future climate change will affect food security. Around 800 million people are currently undernourished, and this number will probably grow as our climate changes. How will the most vulnerable households and countries cope, when they are likely to be the most seriously affected and have the least resources to adapt?

Living with variable climate in southern Africa

Southern Africa has experienced severe food shortages over the past few years. These have been caused by several factors, including climate change and variability, problems with governance (including poor risk-management, and inadequate early warning systems) and wider structural issues (such as globalisation). Many parts of the region are also vulnerable to the impacts of large-scale environmental change, including land degradation and biodiversity loss.

Responding to climate change

The impacts of climate change are already being observed around the world, from retreating glaciers to changing seasons and rainfall patterns. Climate change is likely to be evident in the future through more frequent storms, droughts, heat waves, floods and other extreme events. Each of these may affect the security and sustainability of development throughout the world. Developing countries, particularly least developed countries, are likely to be exposed to the greatest impacts. However, climate change is caused by current and past emissions from industrialised countries that have more resources to cope with the impacts.

Knowledge about our future climate

Whilst there is evidence that our climate is changing as a result of human activities, forecasting future changes remains a significant challenge. Despite the use of complex computer models, there is a high degree of uncertainty in forecasts for the next 10 to 100 years. This uncertainty tends to be greater for small spatial scales but government planners, the private sector and non-governmental organisations need detailed regional or local information. Providing this information is perhaps the biggest challenge to climate science today.

Focus on the Pacific Islands

Many Pacific islands are extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change such as sea level rise. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that sea levels will rise by between 0.09 and 0.88 metres by 2100 and continue rising after this. Higher sea levels will cause coastal flooding and have adverse effects on biodiversity, soils and water supplies. Pacific Islanders will be among the first people forced to adapt or ultimately relocate. The impacts will be felt for many generations because of the low adaptive capacity in these islands and high vulnerability to climate-related natural disasters.

Justice and adaptation to climate change

Climate change is very much an issue of justice. Our climate is changing because developed countries have used fossil fuels to pursue economic growth. Yet climate change will mostly affect developing countries that have not contributed to the problem and have a weak capacity to cope with it.

Variability and extremes in water resources in the Nile river basin

Climate variability represents a significant challenge for water resources management. Further changes in rainfall and river flows, caused by human-induced climate change, undermine traditional methods of water resource management. They increase the severity and frequency of floods and droughts, and increase water scarcity. This is causing major problems for people in the Nile river basin, from farmers in the Ethiopian highlands, the main source area, to those in Egypt who are almost wholly dependent upon water that originates from these highlands.

Sites for sore eyes

Further web resources.

Glossary

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