Lost in space
Locating the chronically poor

People living in certain areas are often vulnerable to similar risks, increasing their chance of becoming chronically poor. At the same time, in some poor areas not everyone is poor, and not everyone who is poor will remain so for long. Where do 'pockets of poverty' exist and why? Under what conditions can they become 'poverty traps'?

Based on very limited data, the total number of chronically poor people in the world may range from 450 million to 900 million. Chronic poverty can be understood in terms of one's health status or position in the life cycle, household, labour market, community or nation. People also experience common vulnerabilities based on a common place of residence or work. Those who are vulnerable in more than one way are more likely to be chronically poor: for example, a household located in a Johannesburg shantytown and supported by an HIV-positive wage labourer.

Poverty mapping

Poverty maps, based on poverty data collected from different geographical regions, are increasingly valuable as they help locate areas with the greatest need and where assistance can make the most difference. Within 'spatial poverty traps', the majority of the population is poor and local resources are extremely limited. As such it is unlikely that individuals or households can reduce their poverty, and certainly not without this being at the expense of others.

Yet these maps make it clear that even in regions and countries that are not poor as a whole - including the 'developed' world - poor areas do exist. In India, for example, there are large pockets of severe poverty in relatively well-developed states, in urban centres and in semi-arid, forested and tribal areas. Globally, these less-favoured areas (LFAs) include large regions in arid, semi-arid and remote Africa; the 'poverty square' of east-central India; infrastructurally-isolated and tribal parts of Bangladesh; mountainous areas in Asia and the Andes; northern and western China; and smaller poverty pockets elsewhere.

Research findings include:

• Research in Zimbabwe showed that two remote rural communities that are not socio-politically excluded remained poor, but not as poor as a third community experiencing social and political exclusion following civil conflict.
• In Bangladesh, panel data showed that 15% of households that descended into poverty had experienced a shock related to a natural disaster. It also showed that poverty rates are higher in extremely low-lying areas that are frequently flooded and tribal areas where social and geographical disadvantage overlap.
• In Uganda, 1992-96 panel data showed that about 18% of rural residents and 5% of urban residents were poor in all four years. The overall figure, however, ranged from 2% in the central region to 20% in the northern region, due to high levels of conflict, internal displacement and drought.
• In Sri Lanka, outside of conflict zones for which there is very limited data, poverty is concentrated in arid rural areas without irrigation. Poverty rates are almost twice as high in rural and estate areas than in urban areas.
• Urban chronic poverty is a significant and growing problem not confined to inner city slums. Low-income populations also exist in large city peripheries, small towns, refugee camps and communities with strong links to both urban and rural livelihoods. In India, a similar proportion of urban and rural populations face conditions of extreme poverty (about 15% in 1993-94).

Policy implications

Implications for policy include:

• In order to tackle the poverty-related characteristics of LFAs, governments and civil society need to focus on a range of policies and interventions - including increasing all forms of security and building political and human capital in particular.
• Policy-makers need to take into account relationships between different spatial zones, particularly in terms of migration and other links between rural and urban areas.

Karen Moore
Chronic Poverty Research Centre
Institute for Development Policy and Management
University of Manchester
Crawford House
Precinct Centre
Oxford Road
Manchester M13 9GH
UK

T +44 (0)161 275 0809
F +44 (0)161 273 8829
karen.moore@man.ac.uk

See also
'Chronic Poverty and Remote Rural Areas', Chronic Poverty Research Centre Working Paper 13, by K. Bird, K. Moore, D. Hulme and A. Shepherd, 2002

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