ID21 - Insights Issue 31

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		Issue #31
		For richer, for fairer- poverty reduction and income distribution

		Efficiency versus equity? Wage waves in China

		Seeds of hope? Is the Green Revolution coming for Africa?

		Measuring pro-poor growth in rural India

		Earnings off the farm: magic bullet or myth?

		Ethiopia after reform: why some poor got poorer

		Storm clouds over Asia: signs of a silver lining?

		Sites for Sore Eyes

September 1999 Insights Issue #31

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Seeds of hope?

The spread of modern dwarfing varieties of wheat, rice and other cereal crops prompted major improvements in living standards throughout Asia from the 1960s to the present. This Green Revolution has been widely seen as a driving force behind Asia's economic growth and a crucial factor in the 'pro-poor' pattern of that growth over the past 30 years. University of Reading researchers asked, could similar Green Revolution technologies also help to galvanise anti-poverty strategies in Africa, where poverty levels have risen over the same period? The signs are that they could if capital and labour market conditions were improved and infrastructure upgraded.

In China, India, Indonesia and elsewhere the Green Revolution was spurred on by direct state interventions that combined pricing incentives, new seed supply infrastructure, credit and input subsidies. Results were dramatic, peaking in China where crop yields rose by a world record 4.1 percent a year from 1978 to 1984. The difference Asia's Green Revolution made to what is now called 'pro-poor' growth came about mainly because the new technologies were:

scale-neutral, meaning that the improved seeds (if not complementary inputs like farm chemicals or irrigation machinery) could be adopted to advantage on holdings of any size

unlikely to increase risk of crop failure, so long as pest and disease resistance was successfully bred into new varieties along with clear yield improvements.

Hence the new crops had none of the deterrents to innovation that tend to scare off risk-averse poor or small-scale producers. It makes sense, therefore, to ask if they can now be applied as a mainstay of pro-poor growth strategies elsewhere. The need is most acute in Africa, where poverty levels are still on the rise. But here such transfers are liable to run into various snags. For one thing, wheat or rice are not common crops in Africa. There cereal crops are likely to be maize, sorghum or millet. Crops such as cassava are also vital. Genetic advances affecting these crops have been a long time coming. Moreover:

Population pressure, a key lever of intensification in Asia, is weaker in Africa. Though high in parts, the overall population density is on a par with that of Asia in the early 1960s.

The continent's notorious vulnerability to drought and floods introduces extra risk factors

Frailties in Africa's physical and financial infrastructure can roadblock higher productivity.

Findings emerging from the Reading work, backed by DFID and the Gatsby Trust, show that:

there is immense potential for further yield increases from existing modern crop varieties

realising this potential hinges on market development, notably capital and labour markets

appropriate institutional innovations, such as microfinance for low-income households with crop insurance and flexible repayment periods, could sharply increase that potential.

It is also clear that where such potential is realised, scope for poverty reduction is enhanced, not only on account of cash gains to farm households but also because indirect benefits accrue through lower crop prices, extra demand for labour and farm vis-a-vis non-farm linkages. In places where reports suggest poverty is falling, such as Uganda, the beginnings of a green revolution in maize and cassava production are a factor. In the case of cassava, recent mosaic-resistant strains have spurred a reduction in poverty levels in Uganda's northern region, which has missed out on most other sources of income increase.

Serious hurdles still bar further diffusion of an African Green Revolution. Some stem from donor habits. Food aid, for instance, damaged incentives for farmers to market food surpluses. But where such hurdles can be overcome, emphatic gains to the economy and to the livelihoods of the poor can be expected. Pro-growth or anti-poverty strategies for Africa must embrace policies and institution-building efforts that ease constraints on food crop production.

Contributor(s): Paul Mosley

Further information:
Paul Mosley
Department of Economics
University of Sheffield
9 Mappin Street
Sheffield
S1 4DT
UK

Tel: +44 (0)114 222 3397
Fax: +44 (0)114 222 3458
Email: P.Mosley@sheffield.ac.uk
University of Sheffield

Other related links:
Search Eldis for sources on Agriculture

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