Are fertility rates falling in South Africa?  What effect will this have on South African society?  The University of Cape Town, together with the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, used recently available census and health survey information to analyse fertility trends in the second half of the twentieth century amongst South African women.

National data were politically sensitive under South Africa's apartheid system and not easy to obtain. Moreover, the available data were unreliable so it was very difficult to investigate fertility levels in South Africa until recently.  The 1996 South Africa Census and the 1998 Demographic Health Survey provided the first readily available data covering the whole country since 1970.

The study found that:

• Fertility levels halved between the 1960s and 1996 to 3.2 children per woman nationally and 3.5 children for African South African women.
• Fertility in South Africa is now lower than elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).  It is similar to fertility rates in many middle-income countries in other parts of the world.
• Fertility rates dropped by 10% before the end of the 1960s.  At the start of the decade African women gave birth on average to almost seven children.  However, most of the fall in fertility of South African women has occurred since the mid-1980s.
• The fertility decline began before the family planning programme was introduced in 1974.

The low impact of the 1974 family planning campaign can probably be explained by the restrictions apartheid put on African South African women.  They had little choice of employment, little choice about where they lived, and limited access to health care.  On the other hand, the overall fall in fertility over the past three decades can be explained by a number of causes:  a more urban population; widely available contraception; an increase in education levels; and the enormous changes that have taken place in South African society.  Further findings include:

• South Africa, together with Zimbabwe and Botswana, is well along the road from high to low fertility.
• The unadjusted census data exaggerate the proportion of births that are occurring to older mothers.
• The number of births each year has peaked and is now declining. 
• Over the next few years a larger number of children will be entering the school system, but numbers will soon begin to fall.
• The planning for the further development of South Africa’s infrastructure will need to take these population changes into account.

It is likely that the HIV epidemic will speed up the decline in South African fertility as women of child-bearing age fall prey to the disease.  In 2001, the HIV infection rate was estimated at around a quarter of all African women in the country.  Women infected with HIV have lower fertility levels and many will die in their thirties.  In 1998 more than 20% of death in childbirth was due to AIDS.  More research therefore urgently needs to be carried out on the links between HIV and fertility in SSA.

Source(s):
‘The South African fertility decline: evidence from two censuses and a demographic and health survey’, Population Studies 57(3): 265-283 by T.A. Moultrie and I.M. Timaeus, 2003
'Trends in South African fertility between 1970 and 1998: An analysis of the 1996 census and the 1998 demographic and health survey', Burden of Disease Research Unit Technical Report: Medical Research Council, South Africa, by T.A. Moultrie and I.M. Timæus, 2002
'Reproductive control in apartheid South Africa', Population Studies 54 (1): 105-114, by C.E. Kaufman, 2000

id21 Research Highlight: 7 January 2004

Further Information:
Tom Moultrie
The Centre for Actuarial Research
University of Cape Town
Private Bag
Rondebosch 7700
South Africa

Contact the contributor: tmoultri@commerce.uct.ac.za

University of Cape Town, South Africa

Ian Timaeus
Centre for Population Studies
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Keppel Street
London WC1E 7HT
UK

Contact the contributor: I.Timaeus@lshtm.ac.uk

London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK

Other related links:
'Reduction in reproduction – fertility decline in Nepal' >

'Choice and access: family planning services in Yemen' >

'Africa in crisis: Hazards rise for prime-age adults' >

'Reproducing national trends? Maasai fertility in Kenya and Tanzania' >

See id21's collection of links relevant to sexual and reproductive health.

See id21's collection of links relevant to maternal and child health.

See id21's collection of links relevant to HIV/AIDS.